unexpected events

If you had the opportunity to practice your response to an unexpected event in a risk-free environment, why wouldn’t you?

We get caught off guard sometimes. As I am sitting here, self-isolating in my apartment as the world responds to COVID-19, I can’t help but wonder whether we could have been better prepared. Perhaps it is a risk event that was too hard to anticipate, and it was inevitable that in some way, we’d all get caught like a deer in the headlights. Perhaps we just underestimated the severity of the impact that an epidemic such as COVID-19 could have on our societies. Or did we just miss the warning signs?

Over the last couple of days, Bill Gates’ 2015 TED Talk “The next outbreak? We’re not ready” was widely shared across social media platforms.

Back in 2015, Bill Gates suggested that “…if anything kills over 10 million people, in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus, rather than a war.” Part of the reason, he points out, is that we’ve invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. Among other things, Gates recommends that we do simulations so we can identify the holes in our systems so as to ensure that we don’t get caught off guard.

As a result of the quick action that has been taken by governments, communities and businesses around the world, I am sure that the severity of COVID-19 will be much less catastrophic than the scenario described in Gates’ talk. Nevertheless, in a few months, we will look back and ask ourselves, what could we have done better? Could we have reacted faster?

When events are unexpected, we must act quickly! Sometimes we miss things. It is only with the benefit of hindsight that we can look back and say that we should have done this or that differently.

COVID-19 is just one example of thousands of unexpected events that we need to deal with in life and business every day. The recent Australian bushfires is another example. Not even three months into 2020 and the impact and severity of unexpected events have been some of the toughest we’ve seen in years, and possibly the toughest of our lifetime.

The acronym VUCA (used to describe conditions of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) has been around since 1987, but its importance to strategic leadership has increased exponentially, just like the pace of change. The world has become increasingly volatile and uncertain, and in such an environment, systemic and behavioural failures can threaten our survival – we must be prepared.

The world of simulations, on the other hand, deals with similar challenges, but without the risk. In the real world, unexpected events hit without warning. They require an immediate response. We don’t get a second chance. We don’t get the luxury of time; we don’t get the benefit of hindsight.

How good would it be to have had an opportunity to practice? How beneficial would it be to learn from mistakes in an environment that is risk-free?